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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd